March 26, 2009

the future is NOT now

Logging into Yahoo! Mail just now, I  see these two news items this morning (URLs changed since Yahoo! News links expire and I want something more permanent.)

Then, Now, and the Future (in reverse order):

Future:  Obama wants high-paying, high-skill jobs in future

Now: A gloomy economic stasis has taken hold (see below)

Then: Jobless claims set new record; GDP down more in 4Q, how big the awning gap between the now and the then. When will we get there, Mr. O?

Related: Economic Conditions Snapshot, March 2009: McKinsey Global Survey Results

Executives forecast ongoing economic gloom, but, for the second survey in a row, the percentage of the respondents who think the situation is getting worse hasn’t increased. Many say their corporate-management team is doing a good job in the crisis.

A gloomy economic stasis has taken hold, responses to a McKinsey Quarterly survey—in the field from March 10, 2009, through March 16, 2009—indicate.1 The percentage of the executives who say economic conditions have gotten worse at the national level hasn’t increased, but fewer than a third expect an upturn this year.

Executives overall are confident with how their companies are managing the crisis, though 53 percent expect profits to drop in the first half of 2009, and the number expecting to shed workers has jumped eight percentage points in six weeks. Companies that executives describe as well managed are likelier than others to be reducing both operating costs and capital spending—and perhaps not weakening operations a great deal, because these companies are also likelier than others to be improving productivity. Overall, the results show that most companies are not actively seeking more cash.

This survey also solicited executives’ views on some topics of intense public debate. Respondents think “bad banks” are a good idea, disagree on whether CEOs are paid too much, and overwhelmingly say the public trusts business less than it did before the crisis—and lay the blame at the doors of financial firms.
And so it goes....

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